Si miramos el spread mayo-junio, se puede apreciar cómo ha aumentado el rango diario:
Desde el punto de vista de los fundamentales, está pesando mucho la situación de Ucrania y la influencia que pueda tener en las exportaciones de carne de cerdo de Estados Unidos a Rusia. Copio un comentario que me ha parecido muy interesante:
Bull spreads in the hogs taking no prisoners
The Russian situation has stabilized. The U.S. administration appears content to do NOTHING. That's good for the pork producers as widespread economic sanctions; including trade restrictions will not be imposed. Despite talk from Russia today regarding procedure, I'd expect the Russians to begin importing U.S. pork this month. The bull spreads continue to jack higher with the April contract now trading less than 200 points under the Aug. Are you kidding??? This spread won't hold but I'm not jumping into the bear spread, yet. Lean hog futures are poised to top and stage a major downward correction. The December contract, which staged a key reversal yesterday, is breaking down again today. I noticed that this contract was the only contract to show higher OI from yesterday's action. This tells me the trade is becoming convinced that U.S. producers will soon get the PED virus under control. Repeating, from the spec standpoint I'm on the sidelines. Producers, from a hedging standpoint, it's time to take a look at rolling up the long put strike prices. We're currently long the June, July and Aug 98 puts.
Según el autor del comentario, el comportamiento del contrato de diciembre (más débil que los demás) está directamente relacionado con el control del virus PED por parte de los productores. Es decir, que las medidas que se han tomado están funcionando y la cabaña porcina será mayor y los precios, en consecuencia, menores.
El precio de los cerdos está en máximos históricos:
Gráfico de contratos continuos de Scarr Visual Trading
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